Cyclone Alfred Delays Election But When Will Aussies Vote?

For months, it seemed like Australians would be heading to the polls on April 12. But then Tropical Cyclone Alfred swept in and changed everything.

What Happened?

April 12 was the frontrunner for the federal election because it was a perfect "Goldilocks" date. It was:

• Far enough from the WA state election.

• Early enough to avoid the Easter and Anzac Day long weekends.

• An option that would avoid the need for an early budget.

But Cyclone Alfred threw a spanner in the works. To call an election, the Prime Minister needs to be in Canberra, and with communities in South-East Queensland and Northern NSW dealing with floods, it wasn’t a good look for Anthony Albanese to leave Brisbane. The last possible Sunday to call an April 12 election was March 9, and Albanese confirmed he wouldn’t be calling it then.

“I have no intention of doing anything that distracts from what we need to do,” he said. “This is not a time for looking at politics.”

So, When Is the Election?

With April 12 out of the picture, the next available dates are:

• May 3

• May 10

• May 17

April 19 and April 26 are out because they fall during the Easter and Anzac Day long weekends.

What’s the Government Saying?

Albanese and his ministers have been tight-lipped about the election date. Even when April 12 seemed like a lock, they wouldn’t confirm it. Back in January, when asked about a mid-April election, Albanese said:

“Well, May 17 is when the election will be, or before... good try there, I'll give you points for effort.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has also emphasized that they’re focusing on delivering the March 25 budget, a timeline that wouldn’t have worked with an April 12 election but is now very much in play.

“Regardless of the decision the Prime Minister takes, an election is more or less imminent,” Chalmers said.

Why Is May 17 the Latest Possible Date?

Australia's Constitution has some pretty specific rules about election timing:

• House of Representatives terms run for three years. An election must be held no later than 68 days after those terms expire (July 25, 2025).

• The last possible Saturday within that window is September 27, but we’ll go to the polls much sooner due to the Senate’s timeline.

Half of the senators' terms end on June 30, 2025, and elections for those seats have to happen in the previous year. Considering all the technicalities, the latest possible date for a House of Representatives and half-Senate election is May 17, 2025.

What Do Interest Rates Have to Do With It?

Before the RBA cut interest rates on February 18, many thought the government was waiting for a rate cut before calling the election. The rate cut brought some positive economic news after years of rising costs, and that gave Albanese a boost.

But RBA Governor Michele Bullock made it clear that a second cut isn’t likely anytime soon. If there was a chance of more relief, the government might have delayed the election to capitalize on that momentum.

What About a Double Dissolution Election?

A double dissolution (where both houses of Parliament are dissolved, and all seats are up for grabs) isn’t happening. The last chance for that was January 24, and the government managed to pass a significant amount of legislation at the end of 2024, eliminating the possibility.

Double dissolutions are rare in Australia—only seven have happened in history, with the most recent in 2016.

Bottom Line

With May 17 looking like the latest possible date, and economic conditions playing into the decision, it seems the countdown to the election is well and truly on. Now it’s just a matter of when Albanese makes it official!